Adelaide Vs Collingwood Preview

Match of the Round
Adelaide 1st v Collingwood 5th

Have we overestimated Adelaide? Have we seen the end of Adelaide’s dream run?

They finally played a team within 5 places of them on the ladder (2nd placed West Coast) and lost by 82 points. Adelaide’s remaining draw is much tougher when you put their previous 12 matches into perspective by the ladder positions of their opponents.

 
After Adelaide defeated Kangaroos in Round 16 I noticed that 9 of Adelaide’s 11 previous opponents were placed in double digits on the ladder at the time.

From Round 6 to 16, Adelaide were placed 2,2,1,3,2,2,2,1,1,1 & 1 – average 1.63
From Round 6 to 16, Adelaide’s opponents were  placed 12,11,13,16,10,7,11,6,14 & 13 – average 11.27
 
From Round 6 to 16, Collingwood were placed 1,3,2,3,3,3,3,3,4,6 & 4 – average 3.09
From Round 6 to 16, Collingwood’s opponents were  placed 15,2,11,6,10,6,6,8,7,8 & 2 – average 7.18
 
The difference of 9.64, to be put another way, means that "on average", Adelaide had played teams which were almost 10 positions below them on the ladder. In the same period above, the average position of Collingwood’s opponents was 7.18, the hardest run in the league, and just 4 positions below their average position of 3.09. Despite this they still managed 6 wins from 11.
 
Collingwood are also on target to break a league record for attendance in a home and away season.
So far 919,344 have attended their 17 matches.  They won’t break the million mark at Football Park, but will definitely do so against Essendon in Round 19. In 2003, a club record total of 1,119,846 attended Collingwood’s 22 home and away matches.   After Round 17, their attendance totalled 825,990. In 1998, a league record total of 1,169,551 attended Essendon’s 22 home and away matches.   After Round 17, the total was 877,412.

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